Two NATO intelligence agencies suspect that Russia is working on a new anti-satellite weapon aimed at disrupting Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation. This weapon would use orbiting clouds of shrapnel to potentially damage or destroy Starlink satellites, which have played a critical role in supporting Ukraine during its conflict with Russia. The weapon’s goal is to undermine the West’s space dominance, which has been instrumental in Ukraine’s defense.
The “Zone-Effect” Weapon: How It Works
According to intelligence documents seen by The Associated Press, the so-called “zone-effect” weapon would unleash a barrage of high-density pellets into Starlink’s orbit. These pellets could disable multiple satellites simultaneously, but the real concern lies in the collateral damage. The weapon could generate debris that risks causing widespread destruction of not only Starlink satellites but also other vital systems in space.
The pellet cloud would be designed to flood the orbits with potentially hundreds of thousands of particles. Although these could damage specific satellites, the resulting space debris would likely create chaos for numerous space systems, including those owned by Russia and China, which rely heavily on satellites for communications, military operations, and other essential functions.
Concerns and Skepticism
Despite the potential threat posed by the proposed anti-satellite weapon, analysts are skeptical about its feasibility. Experts believe that the uncontrolled debris caused by such a weapon could lead to severe consequences not only for the West but also for Russia and its allies. For instance, the China-Russia alliance is heavily reliant on space systems for military and civilian purposes.
Victoria Samson, a leading space security expert at the Secure World Foundation, expressed doubts about the weapon’s effectiveness. “I really don’t believe this is plausible,” she stated. “The chaos that would result from space debris would be too dangerous even for the countries developing such weapons.”
However, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, the commander of the Canadian military’s Space Division, acknowledged that Russia’s pursuit of such a weapon might not be entirely far-fetched. In light of previous allegations regarding Russia’s interest in nuclear and space-based weapons, he stated, “It’s not implausible.”
Russia’s Growing Space Tensions
Russia has consistently expressed concern over Starlink’s role in Ukraine’s defense. The low-orbit satellites provided by Starlink have been crucial for Ukraine’s military communications, weapons targeting, and even civilian connectivity in areas where Russian attacks have disrupted regular communication channels.
Russia’s military has repeatedly stated that commercial satellites assisting Ukraine’s forces could become legitimate military targets. In addition to the S-500 ground-based missile system capable of hitting low-orbit satellites, the new anti-satellite weapon would take a more aggressive approach by targeting multiple Starlink satellites simultaneously.
The Danger of Uncontrollable Space Debris
One of the primary concerns surrounding this potential weapon is the debris it could generate. By releasing clouds of high-density pellets, the weapon could inadvertently scatter debris across space, affecting not only Starlink satellites but any other satellite within the same orbital regime.
Brigadier General Horner noted the dangers of this approach, comparing the impact to “blowing up a box full of BBs.” He warned that the resulting debris cloud could cause extensive damage to satellites beyond just Starlink, disrupting global communications and military operations.
The Risk to Global Space Systems
If such a weapon were to be deployed, the impact would extend beyond Starlink. Space-based systems, including those used by commercial and military entities worldwide, would be at risk. Countries, including Russia and China, which rely on satellite networks for defense, communications, and data gathering, could also find their systems compromised.
The consequences of a weapon that indiscriminately targets space systems would not only disrupt military operations but also harm civilian services such as weather forecasting, global navigation, and communication networks.
